Cannabis stock have heated up a bit to start the new year, but BofA Securities analyst Christopher Carey sees downside ahead.
BofA lowered its 2020 sales estimates across the board for Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB), Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE: CGC), Organigram Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OGI), Cronos Group (NASDAQ: CRON), HEXO Corp. (NYSE: HEXO) and Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY).
“The reason for our estimate cuts is pretty simple,” Carey wrote, “we now assume a roughly 25% lower market size for Canada’s adult use market in 2020, driven by fewer stores in Ontario; and, since our Canada adult use company estimates are anchored by market size and implied market share, our company sales estimates have thus come down.”
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According to the analyst’s calculations, Aphria Inc. (NYSE: APHA), Aurora, Tilray and Cronos need the most help from Ontario stores, while Hexo, Canopy Growth and Organigram are in better positions versus Street sales. Carey said both upside and downside visibility for Ontario stores is low.
BofA raised its price targets for Aphria from $5.36 to $6.13 (Neutral rating), Canopy Growth from $25.27 to $27 (Buy rating), Cronos from $9.19 to $9.89 (Buy rating) and Tilray from $18 to $22 (Neutral rating).
Carey said the firm boosted these price targets to mirror the expansion of multiples across cannabis: “Higher multiples raise the bar for all, adding risk to all names that we think need to be contemplated.”
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